Canada’s Visa Expiry Crisis Explained – What 4.9 Million Expiring Permits Really Mean for 2026

As Canada tightens its intake of temporary residents and enters a period where millions of permits are expiring, a single question has moved to the centre of national debate: how many people will actually leave Canada when their legal status ends, and how many will remain without authorization?

Parliamentary discussions and committee testimony have highlighted the scale of the challenge. Federal documents cited in House committees indicate that 4.9 million visas and immigration documents are set to expire between September 2024 and December 2025. Lawmakers pressed the Immigration Minister on how the government would know how many of these individuals “wind up leaving.”

The answer was not a definitive figure. Instead, it reflected expectations, monitoring tools, enforcement capacity, and structural limits. That uncertainty has fuelled public concern over undocumented migration, particularly as Canada enters 2026 with tighter rules and fewer transition pathways.

What the “4.9 Million Expiring Visas” Figure Really Means

Documents, Not People

The widely cited 4.9 million figure does not represent 4.9 million individuals. It refers to immigration documents—including visitor records, work permits, study permits, and other temporary authorizations—scheduled to expire by the end of 2025.

Government officials emphasized two critical clarifications:

• The total includes many document types, ranging from tourist-related entries to niche work authorizations.
• One person can hold multiple documents, meaning documents and people do not match one-to-one.

These clarifications are accurate, but they do not erase the underlying policy concern. Canada’s temporary resident population is now so large that even a small non‑compliance rate can translate into very large absolute numbers.

Why the Expiry Number Still Matters

A Risk Indicator, Not a Headcount

The 4.9 million figure should be understood as a forward-looking risk and workload indicator, not a confirmed measure of overstays. It signals the scale of:

• Administrative pressure on renewal and transition systems
• Compliance risk if individuals fail to renew or depart
• Integrity challenges if tracking and reconciliation lag behind volume

Without comprehensive exit verification, the debate becomes one of probability rather than proof. That is why parliamentary assurances that “the vast majority comply” did not settle the issue. They express policy expectation, not audited outcomes.

Canada’s Exit-Data Gap and Why Answers Remain Elusive

Why Ottawa Cannot Give a Clean Number

When asked how many temporary residents actually leave Canada after their status expires, federal officials have consistently pointed to a major limitation: Canada does not maintain a fully reconciled, public, person-level exit database.

In committee testimony, the Immigration Minister acknowledged plainly that the government does not have an exact number of how many individuals leave once their permits expire.

This matters because permit expiry does not equal illegal presence. An expiring document can lead to several lawful outcomes, including departure, renewal, transition to permanent residence, or remaining in Canada while an in‑country application is processed.

What Happens When a Permit Expires

Multiple Legal and Illegal Pathways

An individual whose permit expires may fall into one of several categories:

• They leave Canada voluntarily, remaining compliant.
• They extend or change their temporary status, remaining compliant.
• They transition to permanent residence, remaining compliant.
• They apply in Canada and gain implied or maintained status, often compliant.
• They remain without authorization, becoming non‑compliant.
• They become removable but are not immediately removed, creating an enforcement gap.

Public debate often collapses these categories into a single narrative. Effective policy cannot.

How Many Undocumented Migrants Are in Canada?

Why Estimates Vary So Widely

Estimating the number of undocumented migrants—those living in Canada without valid immigration status—is inherently difficult. These include overstayers, rejected asylum seekers who did not depart, and individuals who entered irregularly.

As of early 2026, there is no definitive official count. Estimates vary widely depending on methodology, assumptions, and recent policy changes.

Official and Historical Estimates

What Government Sources Have Said

Briefings from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada in 2024–2025 suggested that up to 500,000 undocumented migrants may be living in Canada. These figures were shared with parliamentary committees but described as imprecise and potentially unreliable.

A Department of Finance briefing echoed similar numbers, while former Immigration Minister Marc Miller publicly acknowledged that the true number is unknown, previously suggesting it could be as high as 600,000.

Projections Pointing Toward 2026

Why the Risk May Be Rising

Recent policy shifts—reductions in temporary resident intake, stricter work and study permit rules, and narrower permanent residence pathways—have changed the trajectory.

Analysts project that:

• Over 1 million work permits expired in 2025, with nearly another 927,000 expected in 2026.
• The first quarter of 2026 alone could see over 300,000 expiries, creating a processing bottleneck.
• Without viable renewal or transition options, some individuals may drift into undocumented status.

Some projections suggest Canada could face over 1 million undocumented residents by mid‑2026, with more aggressive scenarios estimating up to 2 million, though these figures remain contested.

Demographic and Geographic Concentration

Where the Pressure Is Highest

Large urban centres bear the greatest impact. Toronto alone is estimated to host nearly half of Canada’s undocumented population, potentially up to 300,000 people. Other major cities include Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa‑Gatineau, and several mid‑sized Ontario cities.

Certain demographic groups, particularly international graduates and temporary workers from countries with historically high approval rates, face disproportionate expiry pressure as pathways tighten.

Enforcement Reality: Removals Are Rising, But Capacity Is Limited

What the Numbers Show

Enforcement statistics from Canada Border Services Agency show that removals are increasing:

• 18,785 enforced removals in 2025 (to October 31)
• 17,357 in 2024
• 15,207 in 2023

These are meaningful increases, supporting claims that enforcement activity is intensifying. However, the backlog of removal cases exceeds 50,000, and removals remain small relative to the size of the temporary resident population.

Why Enforcement Alone Cannot Solve the Problem

A Scale Mismatch

As of October 2025, Canada had nearly 2.85 million non‑permanent residents. Even record‑high removals address only a fraction of that population.

This illustrates a key policy constraint: removals cannot be the primary tool for managing compliance at this scale. Any sustainable approach must focus on prevention, early detection, and lawful transitions.

What Policymakers Can Do in 2026

Four Strategic Levers Ottawa Must Use

To reduce the risk of undocumented growth, Canada has four core options—none of which can be replaced by enforcement alone.

1. Build Reconciled Exit and Status Data

Canada needs a public reporting framework that reconciles:

• Expiring permits
• Extensions and renewals
• Transitions to permanent residence
• Confirmed exits
• Enforcement actions

Without reconciliation, debate will continue to rely on rhetoric instead of measurement.

2. Detect Non‑Compliance Earlier

Late detection creates reputational and policy damage. Earlier verification—especially in high‑risk student and worker streams—can prevent individuals from slipping out of status unnoticed.

3. Create Credible Transition Pathways

When renewal options are narrowed too broadly, even highly compliant residents may be pushed toward non‑compliance. Clear, realistic pathways for priority workers and graduates are essential.

4. Focus Enforcement Where Risk Is Highest

Enforcement works best when it is intelligence‑led, targeting fraud, repeat non‑compliance, and high‑risk cases—not as a blunt substitute for weak tracking systems.

What Temporary Residents Should Do Now

Practical Steps to Stay Compliant

This is not legal advice, but best practice includes:

• Tracking permit expiry dates early
• Applying for extensions or status changes well in advance
• Keeping proof of compliance with permit conditions
• Seeking advice from licensed immigration professionals if your case is complex

The greatest individual risk is waiting until after expiry, assuming the system will resolve itself.

Why the Stakes Are Higher Than Ever

A High‑Risk Environment Going Into 2026

Canada is entering 2026 with:

• Very large volumes of expiring permits
• Identified pockets of non‑compliance
• Enforcement activity rising but constrained by scale

The data supports one clear conclusion: the risk of undocumented growth is real, even if exact numbers remain uncertain.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Does 4.9 million expiring visas mean 4.9 million people must leave Canada?

No. The figure refers to documents, not individuals. Many people hold multiple permits or transition legally.

2. Does Canada know how many people overstay their visas?

No exact number exists due to incomplete exit reconciliation, though estimates are used for planning.

3. Are removals increasing in Canada?

Yes. Enforced removals have risen year over year, but remain limited relative to population size.

4. Could undocumented numbers rise in 2026?

Yes. High expiry volumes combined with fewer renewal pathways increase that risk.

5. What should temporary residents do to avoid problems?

Track expiry dates, apply early, maintain compliance, and seek professional advice if unsure.